id: same-scores__social-square
title: Same Scores — social square
cohort: A-derivative
grammar: the master's paper-and-ink sheet, compressed to one perceptual event for a phone feed
duration_s: 11
derived_from: same-scores-different-worlds
thesis: >
  Two guards that each miss 10 of 100 items can jointly miss anywhere from
  0 to 10 of the 100 items; the two scores never move while the joint count
  runs the whole interval, and multiplying them selects one world.
epistemic_operation: >
  fixed marginals with moving overlap → a set of feasible worlds; an
  assumption (independence) selects one point.
claim: >
  For marginals (0.10, 0.10) the both-fail probability is identified only to
  [0.0, 0.10]; both endpoints are attained by explicit joint distributions
  that satisfy the marginals; independence names 0.01, a point inside that
  set it was never entitled to.
scope: >
  Identical to the master film's: a declared illustrative input (CC-001) and
  the kernel's bounds and witnesses (CC-001, CC-004), reproduced from a clean
  clone in CI. The population and which items each guard misses are
  illustrative constructions (the master's seed); no measured system appears.
  The cut removes the per-world atom vectors, the endpoint-witness stamps,
  the ledger tags and the registry locator; each is one click away at /try/.
status: supported_within_scope — bound to CC-001 and CC-004 at their registered commit
evidence:
  - fact: CC-001.marginals
    kind: REGISTRY
    value: [0.1, 0.1]
  - fact: CC-001.and_bounds
    kind: PROVED
    value: [0.0, 0.1]
  - fact: CC-001.independence_and
    kind: DERIVED
    value: 0.010000000000000002
  - fact: CC-004.witness_lower
    kind: PROVED
    value: [0.8, 0.1, 0.1, 0.0]
  - fact: CC-004.witness_upper
    kind: PROVED
    value: [0.9, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1]
objects:
  - object: the 100-cell sheet and which cells each guard misses
    status: ILLUSTRATIVE
  - object: the two readouts A MISSES 10/100 and B MISSES 10/100, marked FIXED
    status: REGISTRY
    note: the declared input of CC-001; they do not change in any frame
  - object: the BOTH MISS counter running 0 → 10
    status: PROVED
    note: the start and end states are CC-004's endpoint witnesses; every intermediate state is feasible by the same construction
  - object: the interval 0%–10% over the dimmed sheet
    status: PROVED
    note: CC-001 bounds
  - object: the amber point at 1% labelled independence picks
    status: DERIVED
    note: the product of the marginals — what one assumption selects, not an answer
  - object: the closing action
    status: ILLUSTRATIVE
    note: a route, not a claim
evidence_commits:
  - claim: CC-001
    repo: Cubits11/cc-framework
    commit: 167aa1ee514ee3d797ed9be2c60120d0c1db71f6
  - claim: CC-004
    repo: Cubits11/cc-framework
    commit: 167aa1ee514ee3d797ed9be2c60120d0c1db71f6
falsifier: >
  A clean-clone execution of the bound kernel on marginals (0.10, 0.10)
  returns AND bounds other than [0.0, 0.10], or a witness that fails a
  marginal check at tolerance 1e-9 (CC-001 / CC-004, REJECT); or any
  rendered frame shows a readout other than 10/100 for either guard while
  the BOTH counter moves — checkable frame by frame.
non_claims:
  - does not certify any stacked system as safe, and shows no measured system
  - does not estimate or recover the true dependence between any two guards
  - does not select a point inside the interval; the amber point is what one assumption would select
  - the population and the arrangement are illustrations of feasible worlds, not data
text_budget:
  essential: ["A MISSES 10/100", "B MISSES 10/100", "BOTH MISS 0→10/100", "SAME SCORES. DIFFERENT WORLDS.", "0% … 10%", "independence picks 1%", "DON'T TRUST THE FILM. RUN THE 60-SECOND PROOF", "cubits11.github.io/try"]
  supporting: ["FIXED", "every value: a possible world", "one assumption. one point."]
  provenance: ["/try/ (bound facts, falsifier, non-claims, claim ids)"]
claim_frames:
  - t: 0.3
    shows: opening — A 10/100, B 10/100, both 0/100, nothing has moved
  - t: 3.2
    shows: mid-transition — five rings landed, readouts unchanged
  - t: 6.2
    shows: opposite endpoint — both 10/100 with the two readouts unchanged
  - t: 7.4
    shows: the name — SAME SCORES. DIFFERENT WORLDS.
  - t: 9.6
    shows: the interval 0–10% with the amber point at 1% labelled as what independence picks
  - t: 10.8
    shows: the action — DON'T TRUST THE FILM. RUN THE 60-SECOND PROOF. cubits11.github.io/try
render:
  kind: social
  primary: square
  fps: 30
  formats: [square]
  poster_t: 10.8
  loop: "first and last frames are static holds; the seam is a hard reset to the opening state"
cta_route: "/try/"
campaign: x-film-same-scores
experiment: TRY-A