Identical pairwise overlaps, different three-way probability
CC-Framework's E1 dependence-evidence study established constructively that distributions with identical singleton failure rates (0.5) and identical pairwise overlaps (0.25) can differ in three-way failure probability — 0 under even parity, 0.25 under odd parity — so measuring every pair does not identify a three-guardrail stack. E1 is synthetic; its recorded decision is Narrow.
01Falsifier — what changes this claim
The frozen E1 construction fails to retain the stated equal singleton and pairwise values while yielding the stated different three-way probabilities (0 under even parity and 0.25 under odd parity), or the bound study does not record the stated Narrow decision.
Consequence REJECT
This is the condition and consequence recorded in the registry. The vocabulary this is published in defines what each consequence commits the author to.
02Scope
The frozen study document at the bound commit. Controlled synthetic generators only; no real guardrail was measured.
03Forbidden rescues
Repairs declared unavailable in advance; using one after a failure would breach the recorded commitment.
do not switch to different marginals, overlaps, or generators after failure and call it the same construction
do not turn failure of the concrete construction into a generic possibility claim without a new, stated construction
04Non-claims — what this does not license
the parity construction demonstrates possibility, not frequency, in real guardrail stacks — no claim of empirical prevalence
nothing here validates the framework's practical or deployed value; "we validated CC" is prohibited at every rung of the repository's evidence ladder
the product-baseline failure directions observed in E1 are properties of the tested generators, not universal constants
05Binding and freshness
Binding
E1_DEPENDENCE_EVIDENCE_STUDY.md @ ee61a710 The study's decision record (verdict: Narrow, standing objections, corrections to its own first draft) lives beside it in the same repository directory.
Reviewed
2026-08-24 · window 120 days
Expires
2026-12-22 — after this date the recorded review is overdue; this does not make the claim false
Triggers
executable fires when the frozen study document on the default branch changes
manual E2 produces empirical results — the synthetic scoping here must be restated